Poorer Predictions Than Dart-throwing Monkeys – 7 Takeaways No. 192

Confidence means little. We're all just making it up as we go. New technology is scary. Depression is scary. Being wrong is scary. Phone calls are scary. Personal change is scary.

A chimpanzee standing upright on its hind legs, with a confident expression, throwing a shiny metallic dart with a bright green flight at a wooden dartboard hung on a rustic, earth-toned concrete wall in the distance, the board's surface worn and scratched, surrounded by a subtle gradient of shadows, with the chimpanzee's fur a mix of dark brown and lighter tan hues, its facial features defined by a prominent forehead, almond-shaped eyes, and a small nose, its skin tone a warm, golden brown, the entire scene illuminated by a soft, natural light with a hint of warmth, capturing the dynamic movement of the dart in mid-air and the chimpanzee's focused intensity, with a shallow depth of field to blur the background and emphasize the subject.
(Image: Leonardo.ai)

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1. “Beware the Kodak”

How the Rise of the Camera Launched a Fight to Protect Gilded Age Americans’ Privacy – Sohini Desai – (Smithsonian Magazine)

I find “everything old is new again” a fascinating topic, particularly when it maps so clearly to current issues. When cameras first became popular, there was both an explosion of photographers, as well as an explosion of those less than enamored by the topic.

Photography became such a phenomenon that “Kodak fiends,” a phrase used to describe those seduced by the devilish pleasures of photography, entered the vernacular.

The primary issue discussed in the essay is that of privacy, which hasn’t really changed all that much in the ensuing 100+ years. But the concept of a new technology causing fear, uncertainty, and doubt is as current as anything. Particularly timely: “manually photoshopped pictures that placed ‘the heads of innocent women on the undraped bodies of other females.'” (I love that “photoshopped” is now a verb for events taking place long before its existence.)

Do this: Learn from history, and try not to repeat it.

#privacy #history #photography

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2. “Poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys”

Thinking, Fast and Slow – Daniel Kahneman – (Audiobook)

I’ve mentioned before that this book is both extremely interesting, and long. Listening to it seems to work well for me though.

I’m in the section called “The illusion of validity”, examining the various ways we’re misled into thinking our conclusions are valid, often even in the face of clear evidence otherwise.

… those with the most knowledge are often less reliable. The reason is that the person who acquires more knowledge develops an enhanced illusion of her skill and becomes unrealistically overconfident.

There are so many things that get in the way of clear thinking. Add overconfidence to the list.

Do this: Be humble.

#humility #overconfidence

3. “We were all intimidated”

Everyone Is Making It Up As They Go (Really) – Chris Guillebeau – (A Year of Mental Health newsletter)

Many, many, years ago, as a brand new manager at Microsoft, one of first reports said to me he was waiting to be “found out”. This person happened to be one of the best engineers on my team, and he had what we now call “imposter syndrome”. My response? “Well, shit, me too!” We’re all in that boat.

It’s more common than we think. Guillebeau talks about a conference where he interacted with many very successful authors.

In individual and small group conversations, I told the story of how I felt intimidated by some of them, thinking it was a funny, self-deprecating anecdote.

Their responses greatly surprised me. Every single one of them said, “Me too!!!”

Yes, everyone really is making it up as they go along. And that’s OK.

Do this: Know you’re not alone. Keep at it.

#imposter-syndrome

4. “Helping helps.”

What Helped Through Depression – John Green – (vlog brothers YouTube channel)

Green recently took a one month break from online activity as he battled depression. “A low to mid-level nervous breakdown,” he called it.

In this video, he reflects on some things that helped him recover. Things like therapy, community, and so on. The one that resonated with me the most was “helping”.

It helps to engage with the issues I care about and be encouraged by the friendships and connections that emerge from that work.

I’d emphasize the “friendships and connections” part of that statement. A long time introvert, I’ve come to believe those are more important than we realize, and more important now than ever.

Do this: Help.

#community #depression #helping

5. “You start embracing being wrong”

9 Hidden Signs of Personal Growth – Sahil Bloom – (Curiosity Chronicle newsletter)

I almost didn’t include this because it seemed, overall, a tad common, formulaic, and even trite. However the takeaway above was one of two that really got my attention. So many are paralyzed by the fear of being wrong that they never even try to accomplish the things they might otherwise want to. Bring wrong means you’re trying. Being wrong means you’re learning. Being wrong means you’re growing.

The other is very Stoic/Buddhist in nature:

You stop complaining about things outside of your control.

We love to complain. I think, in part, because it makes us feel superior. But if the thing you’re complaining about is outside of your control, why are you wasting the energy?

Do this: Go ahead, be wrong.

#being-wrong #control

6. “Afraid of the real world”

What Happened to FOMO? – Freya India – (After Babel newsletter)

Apparently social isolation by choice is on the rise. JOMO – Joy Of Missing Out — is a thing. And yet,

We call it self-care, but that just sounds nicer than self-isolation.

Particularly for Gen Z.

Social media doesn’t make Gen Z afraid to miss out; it makes us want to miss out. We want to avoid the risk, the rejection, the awkwardness, the effort and energy that the real world demands.

I’ve long said that technology connects, but at the expense of in-person connection, or at the cost of being afraid to make a phone call, well, that’s taking it too far.

Do this: Connect. And if you are, or care about, A Gen Z’er, or anyone who seems to be isolating in this fashion, this article’s a good place to start.

#connection #isolation

7. “Your identity is not fixed.”

When Is It Time to Step Aside? – Angela Duckworth & Mike Maughan – (No Stupid Questions podcast)

A fascinating episode, give the events of the last few weeks in the U.S. presidential race. While politics is a current and important example, the concept applies to much, much more. I think we’ve all known people who’ve held on to their role for what we could only characterize as “too long”.

People maybe don’t have an idea or vision for a next chapter and they hang so doggedly to an old one.

Not only do they not have a vision, but often even if they do a combination of fear of the unknown, with the comfort of the present, leads them to continue the status quo, even if that’s not appropriate.

Do this: Plan for and embrace the inevitable transitions in life.

#change #identity #transitions

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-Leo

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