There is only risk. Unexpected tax burdens. Cog to agent transition. The marshmallow isn't what we thought. Time choices. Concentrate on living. How to get lucky. Magic is real.
When good and honest people can be incentivized into crazy behavior,
it’s easy to underestimate the odds of the world going off the rails.
-Morgan Housel
1. “Risk is a structural feature of reality, not a glitch to be patched”
There Is No “Right Time.” There Is Only Now, Plus Courage. – Joan Westenberg – (Blog)
Many people try to avoid risk at all costs. Many delay action or decision out of fear.
Delayed action is fear dressed up in strategic language. Fear that if you move too soon, you’ll fail; fear that if you wait long enough, the risk will dissolve
Spoiler: risks rarely dissolve.
I recently did a piece on risk in tech, and the conclusion that I’m coming to is that most people don’t understand that, yes, risk is a “structural feature” that’s present in almost every decision we make. Everything is risk management.
Do this: Accept that everything is or has risk, and make your decisions accordingly.
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2. “The Ignorance Tax.”
The Hidden Tax Holding You Back – Sahil Bloom – (Curiosity Chronicle)
I think it’s safe to say many of us feel like there’s an epidemic of ignorance; willful ignorance even.
The Ignorance Tax is the hidden cost of what you haven’t learned or what you’re choosing to ignore.
It’s the choosing to ignore part that caught my attention. While the article is a fairly typical self-help essay, I once again can’t help but believe that the concept — the tax — applies to so much more than just our own personal growth or lack thereof.
Our country is currently paying a very high ignorance tax. And before we all get too smug about it being “the other guys”, remember: we are likely just as ignorant of their actual beneath-the-rhetoric very real fears and concerns as they are of ours. We’re all paying the tax.
Do this: Do what you can to not pay the tax.
3. “We’ve been training machine-shaped humans.”
The Philosopher’s Invitation – Vicky Zhao – (Intersectional Thinking)
A fascinating essay on the transition from traditional boss/worker (Principal/Agent in her terms) model where workers are treated as replaceable cogs in a machine to a more individual agentic and accountable model.
To be accountable to our own hopes and dreams is a paradigm shift for Agents.
…
How many of us can deal with uncertainty? Exercise judgement? Care? How many of us secretly crave the safety and certainty created by someone else so we don’t have to think about it?
I’m only touching lightly on the topic, which I find very thought provoking. (I’ve read enough of Zhao’s stuff that this tipped me over the edge to a paid subscription.)
Do this: This one I’ll suggest reading, or at least skimming, the article.
4. “The rational action is to take what is available now.”
10,000 hours Can’t Help Dunning-Kruger Pass the Marshmallow Test – Gray Miller – (Medium)
As the title foreshadows, this essay takes on three very popular results from very popular studies cited in several very popular publications. They are, of course, all three completely misrepresented in very popular culture.
What caught my eye was a new take on the so-called “Marshmallow Test”, where the future success of children was supposedly predictable based on their ability to delay gratification in the form of two marshmallows versus one. It turns out the study so often cited suffers from what I would call sampling bias, and was more representative of the children’s trust that the promise would be kept.
If you do not have confidence that those in authority will deliver what they promise, the rational action is to take what is available now, before it disappears.
I found that a new, and fascinating, observation.
Do this: Believe lightly. Question everything.
#10000-hours #dunning-kruger #marshmallow #study
5. “Time Is the Only Non-Renewable Resource”
7 Ways to Think Differently About Time – Chris Guillebeau – (A Year of Mental Health)
We can all make better choices when it comes to how we spend this finite resource. Ironically, the way to do that is not by “time management”.
No productivity system, app, or morning routine can create more than 24 hours in a day or eliminate the reality that you simply cannot do everything. The real challenge isn’t managing time—it’s managing our attention, energy, and expectations.
Again, it’s all about the choices we make and ensuring that those choices align with how we really want this precious resource to be used.
Do this: Consider whether you’re spending time as you would really want to.
6. “Concentrate on Living”
The Eyre Affair – Jasper Fforde – (ebook)
The full quote:
“Ignore forgive and concentrate on living. Life for you is short; far too short to allow small jealousies to infringe on the happiness which can be yours only for the briefest of times.”
Quoting a character (Jayne Eyre’s Rochester, but outside of the book) responding to someone who’s finding it difficult to forgive someone else. (The quote is literal, but it reads more easily as either “Ignore, forgive, and concentrate on living.”, or “Ignore forgive, and…” where the instruction is to ignore the concept of forgiving.)
I just found it a particularly relevant truism.
Do this: Concentrate on living.
7. “Luck isn’t random. It’s about statistics.”
Luck is mostly just math. – Justin Welsh – (Saturday Solopreneur)
While I’ve certainly experienced my share of non-statistical luck, the luck Welsh discusses is a) more common, and b) more directly within our control.
How to increase your luck:
– Read more
– Write more
– Build more
– Meet more people
– Introduce more peopleMost luck isn’t determined by random chance. It will be largely determined by how many times you’re willing to show up, do the work, be patient, and be okay with things not going as planned.
Perhaps most importantly, luck isn’t something you can just wait for. Luck is something you need to proactively prepare for and position yourself for. Then “put in the reps”, as Welsh says, to be there when opportunity arises.
Do this: Show up for luck.
8. “Beliefs exist for important reasons”
Believing in Magic – Leo A. Notenboom – (Blog)
A statement by Elizabeth Gilbert in her book Big Magic: Creative Living Beyond Fear got me thinking about beliefs and their role in life.
Our beliefs are a defense mechanism against a scary world. They’re our way of making sense out of the incomprehensible. They’re part comfort, part explanation, and part community.
And that’s true regardless of whether or not they’re technically correct.
Of course, it gets complicated when belief systems cause harm, and even the definition of “harm” is up for debate.
Do this: Believe and let believe. Do no harm.
What I’m reading now
- Nudge: The Final Edition – Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein
- Messengers: Who We Listen To, Who We Don’t, and Why – Stephen Martin, Joseph Marks (Audio)
My Reading List – everything I’ve read since 2021.
My Sources Page – the common sources I scan/read regularly.
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